Manual Forecasting

Toolbar and menu

Field Description

Functions

Option	Description
Edit Stock Code Options	Select this to use the Options Maintenance program to maintain forecasting options at stock code/revision/release/warehouse level.
Edit Sales History	Select this to use the Demand History Maintenance program to edit sales history information for the selected stock item.
Copy Suggested to Draft	Select this to copy the calculated suggested forecasts to the draft forecasts (see Copy Suggested to Draft).
Edit Draft	Select this to edit the draft forecast quantities for each period (see Draft Forecasts).
Update Current Forecasts	Select this to update your current forecasts (see Update Current Forecasts). See Activity considerations in Notes and warnings.

View

Indicate the values you want to view in the listview columns and on the graph.

Option	Description
Quantities	Select this to display the quantities in the stocking unit of measure.
Cost Values	Select this to display the cost values. Forecast cost values are calculated using the current inventory cost in the selected warehouse. See Field considerations in Notes and warnings.
Sales Values	Select this to display the sales values. Forecast sales values are calculated using the list price for the item.
GP Values	Select this to display the gross profit values. Forecast gross profit values are calculated as `Sales values less Cost value`.
GP Percentages	Select this to display the gross profit percentages. Forecast gross profit percentages are calculated as `Gross Profit value divided by Cost value` shown as a percentage.

Graph

Indicate the graph to display on the Forecasting Graph tab.


	There is a limit on the number of data sets that can be graphed simultaneously. This limit depends on the number of periods being graphed. If this number is greater than 36, then the maximum number of data sets that can be graphed is four. If the number of periods is less than or equal to 36, then up to eight data sets can be graphed. If the limit is exceeded, a warning message is displayed. This enables you to deselect the period that caused the data set to be exceeded.

Your selections are saved against your operator code.

Option

Description

Sales History

This enables you to select to include sales data sets: Previous Year 1, Previous Year 2 and/or Previous Year 3 in the graph.

Current Forecast

Select this to include the current forecast data set in the graph.

Draft Forecast

Select this to include the draft forecast data set in the graph.

Calculated Forecast

You can select to include the following calculated data sets from the following algorithms in the graph:

Suggested
Competition
Mean
Median
Moving Average
Exponential Smoothing/Trend
Six Period Weighted Average
Twelve Period Weighted Average
Holt-Winters Additive
Holt-Winters Multiplicative
Annual Seasonal - Unsmoothed.


	The Six Period Weighted Average and Twelve Period Weighted Average algorithms are not applied when not enough history is available. In this case, the forecast calculation tries to use the default forecast algorithm if it differs, otherwise it reverts to using the Competition algorithm to calculate the forecasts.

Change

Option	Description
Change Stock Code	Select this to enter a different stock item/warehouse/rev/rel for which to generate a forecast. A valid Warehouse and Stock code combination must be entered before any information is displayed.

Warehouse Enter the warehouse for the stock item for which to generate the forecast.

Stock code

Enter the code of the stock item for which to generate the forecast.

A stock item defined as a Notional part (Stock Codes) cannot be included in this selection.

Change Rev/Rel

Use the ECC Revision Release program to select the revision/release of the Stock code required, if it is defined as ECC-controlled (Stock Codes).

Batch Selection

Use the IO Selections program to indicate a range of stock items for which to generate a forecast. You can select this function without entering any information in the previous fields.

When you select the Start Processing option in the IO Selections program, the items are displayed in the Manual Forecasting program.

Forecasting Graph

This displays the graph you selected from the Graph menu.

Details

This tab page contains the following:

Stock Information pane
Forecasting Information pane
Forecasting Measures listview
Forecasting listview

Stock Information

Field	Description
Stock code	The code of the stock item for which the forecast information is currently being displayed. The following options can be accessed from this field: Stock Code Quick View Query (see Inventory Query) Stock Code Setup (see Stock Codes) Multimedia select this to view multimedia objects attached to the stock code (see Multimedia)
Unit of measure	The stocking unit of measure for the stock item.
Product class	The product class defined against the stock item (see Browse on Product Classes).
Cost	The current inventory cost of the item in the selected warehouse.
Supplier	The default supplier defined against the stock item.
Replenishment item	Indicates whether the item was defined as a replenishment item using the Options Maintenance program.
Default lead time	The lead time as defined against the stock item.
Age (in months)	This is calculated from the first sale or sales return, whichever is the earliest.
Stock on hand	The current quantity on hand for the item in the selected warehouse.
Stock on order	The current quantity on order for the item in the selected warehouse.
Stock on backorder	The current quantity on backorder for the item in the selected warehouse.
Warehouse	The warehouse for which the forecast information is currently being displayed.
Description	The description defined against the currently selected stock item.
Rev/Rel	The revision/release of the stock item for which you want to generate a forecast. This is only displayed if the stock item is defined as ECC controlled (Stock Codes).

Forecasting Information

Field	Description
Forecast algorithm	The currently selected forecasting algorithm.
Algorithm used	This is the same as the Forecast algorithm except where: the forecast algorithm is Competition, in which case the 'winning' algorithm is displayed the forecast algorithm is one of the seasonal algorithms and the item being forecast has insufficient history or the calculated seasonal correlation falls outside of the specified cut-off. When this occurs, the algorithm reverts to the default algorithm specified in the Inventory Optimization - Forecast Algorithms Setup program. If the algorithm defined in the Inventory Optimization - Forecast Algorithms Setup program is also seasonal, then the Competition algorithm is displayed.
Competition measure	The measure used for selecting the 'winning' algorithm when Competition is selected.
Months for competition	The number of months into the past used to calculate the forecast error when choosing the 'winning' algorithm if Competition is used.
Manual forecast	This indicates whether the item was manually forecast.
Forecast calendar	The forecast calendar being used for the forecast.
Cumulative forecast error (CFE)	This measure represents the difference between the forecast and the actual sale(s) for the period under review, displayed cumulatively. A positive number indicates a forecast that is too high for a period and a negative number indicates a forecast which is too low for a period.
Mean absolute deviation (MAD)	The calculated mean absolute deviation. The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is the average absolute deviation from the mean (i.e. the average error, ignoring the sign of the error).
Mean square deviation (MSD)	The calculated mean square deviation. The sum of the squared forecast errors for each observation divided by the number of observations. It is an alternative to the Mean Absolute Deviation except that, because the errors are squared, more weight is placed on larger errors.
Mean absolute % error (MAPE)	The calculated mean absolute percentage error. This is calculated as the average of the sum of all the absolute percentage errors for the data set. The absolute values of the percentages are summed and the average is computed. The difference between actual value and the forecast value is divided by the actual value. The absolute value of this calculation is summed for every forecast point in time and divided again by the number of fitted points.
Tracking signal	This is calculated as the algebraic sum of forecast errors divided by the Mean Absolute Deviation. It indicates whether the forecast average is keeping pace with any genuine upward or downward changes in demand.
Current view	Your current selection from the View menu. It indicates the type of values being displayed in the listview.

Forecast Algorithm

This screen is displayed when you select the Forecast Algorithm option from the Forecasting Information tab.

Field	Description
Forecast algorithm	You use this field to indicate the algorithm you want to use to calculate the forecast. One of the following algorithms can be selected: Competition Mean Median Moving average Exponential smoothing Six period weighted average Twelve period weighted average Holt-Winters additive Holt-Winters multiplicative Annual seasonal profile - unsmoothed

Forecast Listviews

This pane includes the Forecasting Measures listview and the Forecasting listview.

Field

Description

Forecasting Measures

Period

The periods to which the values relate.

Sales

The value for the relevant period.

Suggested

The suggested value for the relevant period.

CFE

The Cumulative forecast error for the relevant period.

MAD

The Mean absolute deviation for the relevant period.

MSD

The Mean square deviation for the relevant period.

MAPE

The Mean absolute % error for the relevant period.

Tracking

The Tracking Signal for the relevant period.

Forecasting


	The listview displays either the quantity or the type of value you selected from the View menu. If the results of a calculation are a negative value/quantity, then the forecast is set to zero, as it cannot be negative.

Period

The periods to which the values relate. The period is shown as the moth of the year, the week number or the period number (if nether the week number or month apply).

Draft

The value of the draft forecast.

Suggested

The suggested forecast value for the period. It is calculated based on currently available information using the selected algorithm.

Forecast

The current forecast for the period.

Sales x 3

These three columns indicate the sales figures for the past three years. These figures are obtained from sales, sales returns and sales adjustments using a proxy's sales (through multi-levels) if required. If used as a proxy and sales reduction is required, then the sales are reduced by the specified percentage.

For any given forecast period, if the 'reduce sales from' date is prior to the start date of the period, then the percentage to reduce sales is applied unadjusted. If, however, the 'reduce sales from' date is after the start date of the period (and before the end date), then a ratio of the number of days in the period prior to the 'reduce sales from' date is calculated. This ratio is applied to the percentage to reduce sales before the percentage is applied to the sales for the period.

If the item is being used as a proxy for more than one other item, then the sales reduction percentages from all the items using it as a proxy are accumulated and the total percentage applied to the sales figures.

Copy Suggested to Draft

You use the Copy Suggest to Draft option from the Functions menu to copy the calculated suggested forecast to the draft forecast.

When you select this option, the system performs the following:

Checks whether draft forecasts already exist for the item. If draft forecasts exist, a warning is issued to enable you to cancel the copy.
Deletes all existing draft forecast entries for the item that fall between the start date of the first forecast period and the end date of the last forecast period.
For each forecast period out to the horizon, outputs the forecast quantity evenly split over the number of days in the period (both working ad non-working days). The last day may have a different quantity as this day can contain rounding values.

Draft Forecasts

You use the Edit Draft option from the Functions menu to change the forecast quantity for the currently highlighted period in the listview.

Field	Description
Period	This indicates the period for which you want to change the forecast details. This defaults to the period highlighted in the listview when you selected the Edit Draft option from the Functions menu, but can be changed.
Advance to next period automatically	Select this to automatically enter the next period in the Period field when you select the Save function.
Forecast quantity	Enter the new forecast quantity for the selected period.
Freeze draft forecast	Enable/disable this to freeze/unfreeze the draft forecast for the entire Period selected. When frozen: the forecast is not over-written when suggested forecasts are copied to draft forecasts the forecast is not deleted when updating live forecasts the forecast and not the disaggregated figure is used during disaggregation the forecast is not overwritten in Batch Forecasting. The quantities in the frozen draft forecasts are applied when creating live forecasts.

Update Current Forecasts

You use the Update Current Forecasts option from the Functions menu to update the current forecast in MRP.

See Activity considerations in Notes and warnings.

Field

Description

Reference

Enter text for reference purposes that will be output to the forecasts.

Source

Suggested forecasts

Select this to use the calculated suggested forecasts to update the current forecasts.

Draft forecasts

Select this to use the draft forecasts to update the current forecasts.

This is option only available where a draft forecast exists. If, for example you set your draft forecast to zero without freezing the forecast (Families and Groupings) then the draft entries are deleted and no draft forecast exists.

Periods to update

From

Indicate the first period that must be updated.

To

Indicate the last period that must be updated.

Output method

One forecast per period on the first working day

Select this to output only one forecast per forecasting period on the first working day within the period (default selection).

One forecast per period on the first day

Select this to output only one forecast per forecasting period on the first day of the period regardless of whether it is a working day.

Split forecast quantity over all working days

Select this to split the forecast quantity for the period evenly over the working days within the period.


	The last working day may have a different quantity to the others due to rounding.

Split forecast quantity over all days

Select this to split the forecast quantity for the period evenly over the days (both working and non-working) within the period.


	The last working day may have a different quantity to the others due to rounding.

Delete draft forecasts in updated periods

Select this to delete all draft forecasts that fall within the periods for which current forecasts are being updated.

Start Processing

Select this to commence processing.

When you select this option, the system performs the following:

Delete all existing current forecast entries for the item if:
- they fall between the start date of the first forecast period and the end date of the last forecast period AND
- no sales are recorded against the entries (forecast depletion)
Set existing current forecast entries to inactive if:
- they fall between the start date of the first forecast period and the end date of the last forecast period AND
- that have had sales recorder against them
For each forecast, out to the forecast horizon, output the forecast quantity according to the forecast option selected
Snapshots of forecasts created for stock code/warehouse combinations are stored and used in the Forecast Accuracy Review program.

Notes and warnings

Sales updates

Updates to the forecast history for sales and sales returns take place automatically for the stock code/warehouse combinations you process when the option: Update sales history automatically (Inventory Optimization - General Setup) is enabled.

Activity considerations

Operator access to the following activities within this program can be restricted. You configure this using the Operators program.

Activity	Description
IO Allow update of current forecasts	Controls whether an operator can update current (live) Inventory forecasts using the Batch Forecasting, IO Stock Levels Modeling and Manual Forecasting programs. This also affects the Target for results options that can be selected in the IO Selection Sets program.

Field considerations

Operator access to the following fields within this program can be restricted. You configure this using the Security Fields function of the Operators program.

Field

Description

INV Show costs in Inventory/WIP queries

Controls whether stock item costs are displayed in the Inventory, Work in Progress, Projects and Contracts and Inventory Planning modules. It also controls whether cost values are printed on the Stock Take Variance report and the unit cost for bought out items is printed on the Advanced Trial Kitting (Legacy) report.


	If you deny an operator access to the viewing costs in Inventory Query while allowing the same operator to maintain stock codes, then the operator can view details of BOM Costs held against the item.