Inventory Planning > Inventory Forecasting > Processing > Batch Forecasting

Batch Forecasting

You use this program to generate forecasts for your items in batch mode.

You typically use this program to forecast the bulk of your company's stock codes, and use the Manual Forecasting program for those items that require more attention (e.g. your 'A' class items).

You use the Forecast Comparison program to compare current forecasts with draft forecasts.

IO Batch Forecasting

When you load the Batch Forecasting program, the IO Selections program is displayed enabling you to indicate the stock items for which you want to run the batch forecast.

When you select the Start Processing option from the IO Selections program, the selected items are processed as described in the Processing Sequence section.

Processing Sequence

The following process is performed (according to your selections), when you select the Start Processing function from the IO Selections program:

  1. The batch forecast run ensures that all transactions output by invoicing have been included in the sales history files/tables.

  2. If you selected the option: Adjust sales history for outliers, then the IO Adjust History for Outliers program is called. For performance reasons, the program is passed the selections made for batch forecasting and only processes items that are to be included in the forecast run.

    Because of this, it is possible that a proxy that is to be used by an item during forecasting may not be processed.

  3. The program checks for proxies when processing individual items.

  4. Each stock code/revision/release/warehouse is processed as follows:

    • The program checks whether options for the item have been maintained using Options Maintenance. If present, then these are used, otherwise, the Inventory Optimization - Forecast Algorithms Setup options are used.

    • The program ensures that all algorithm settings are valid. Default values are assigned to any that are not valid.

      [Note]

      The Six Period Weighted Average and Twelve Period Weighted Average algorithms are not applied when not enough history is available. In this case, the forecast calculation tries to use the default forecast algorithm if it differs, otherwise it reverts to using the Competition algorithm to calculate the forecasts.

    • If proxies are in use, the program establishes whether the item being processed uses a proxy and/or whether it is being used as a proxy.

    • The program calculates the forecasting periods' start/end dates according to the calendar associated with the item.

    • The program reads sales history into the forecasting periods.

    • If used as a proxy and sales reduction is required, then sales are reduced by the specified percentage.

      For any given forecast period, if the Reduce sales from date is prior to the start date of the period, then the percentage to reduce sales is applied unadjusted. If, however, the Reduce sales from date is after the start date of the period (and before the end date) a ratio of the number of days in the period prior to the Reduce sales from date vs the number of days in the period after the reduce sales from date is calculated. This ratio is applied to the percentage to reduce sales before the percentage is applied to the sales for the period.

      It is possible for the item to be used as a proxy for more than one other item. When this occurs, the sales reduction percentages from all the items using it as a proxy will be accumulated and the total percentage applied to the sales figures.

    • The program checks how many years sales history is available.

    • The program calculates suggested forecasts out to the forecast horizon as specified (in months).

      • If the competition algorithm has been selected, each of the other algorithms will be tried and the one that produces the least error (based on the measurement specified) will be used. The Annual Seasonal - Unsmoothed algorithm will only be attempted if there are at least two years' history and the calculated seasonal correlation falls within the cut-off specified.

        The Holt-Winters algorithms will only be attempted if there are at least three years' history and the calculated seasonal correlation falls within the specified cut-off.

      • If Annual Seasonal - Unsmoothed or either of the Holt-Winters algorithms has been selected and there is either insufficient history or the calculated seasonal correlation falls outside of the specified cut-off, then the default algorithm (Inventory Optimization - Forecast Algorithms Setup) will be used. If the default algorithm is one of these seasonal algorithms, then Competition will be used.

    • The program updates either the draft or current forecasts, depending on the selection made.

      • Draft forecasts

        Delete all existing draft forecast records/rows for the item that fall between the start date of the first forecast period and the end date of the last forecast period.

        For each forecast period out to the forecast horizon, output the forecast quantity evenly split over the number of days in the period (both working and non-working). Note that the last day may have a different quantity to the others as this is used for rounding.

        Draft forecasts against which the option Freeze draft forecast is enabled in either Families and Groupings or Manual Forecasting are not overwritten. The quantities in the frozen draft forecasts are applied when creating live forecasts.

      • Current forecasts

        If forecast amendment journals are required (Inventory Optimization - General Setup) then any additions, changes or deletions will output the appropriate journal.

        Delete all existing current forecast records/rows for the item that fall between the start date of the first forecast period and the end date of the last forecast period and that have not had any sales recorded against them (forecast depletion).

        Set to inactive any existing current forecast records/rows for the item that fall between the start date of the first forecast period and the end date of the last forecast period and that have had sales recorded against them (forecast depletion).

        For each forecast period out to the forecast horizon, output the forecast quantity according to the forecast option selected.

        See Activity considerations in Notes and warnings.

    • If you selected the option Freeze within lead time (IO Selection Sets) then the system calculates a period within which the live forecasts are frozen and these are therefore not changed by this program.

      The program calculates the frozen period as follows:

      1. Calculate a freeze date by adding the item's lead time to the company date (taken from the Inventory Master table).

      2. Calculate which period this 'freeze date' falls into by comparing start end dates for each period. The periods are calculated using the calendar applicable to the SKU.

      3. Once the period is established then the program works out whether it is closer to the start or end date of the period.

        If it is closer to the start date then it freezes all forecasts between the company date and the start of that period.

        If it is closer to the end date for the period, then it freezes all forecasts between the company date and the end of that period.

        [Note]

        The frozen forecasts are added to the snapshot as they are valid forecasts as of the current date.

    • Snapshots of forecasts created for stock code/warehouse combinations are stored and used in the Forecast Accuracy Review program.

Notes and warnings

Automatic history update

  • If you selected the option: Update sales history automatically (Inventory Optimization - General Setup) then updates to the forecast history for sales and sales returns take place automatically for the stock code/warehouse combinations you process.

Activity considerations

Operator access to the following activities within this program can be restricted. You configure this using the Operators program.

Activity Description
IO Allow update of current forecasts Controls whether an operator can update current (live) Inventory forecasts using the Batch Forecasting, IO Stock Levels Modeling and Manual Forecasting programs. This also affects the Target for results options that can be selected in the IO Selection Sets program.

Inserting Application Help

You would typically follow this procedure to display help for the current program in a customized pane that can be pinned to the program window.

Information includes step-by-step instructions for the various functions available within the program, including a brief overview of what the program does, what setup options are required and how to personalize the program.

  1. Open the program for which you want to insert application help into a customized pane.

    This functionality is only available for a program that has panes.

  2. Right-click any form field.

    You can also click the triangle menu icon that appears in the title area of a pane.

  3. Select Insert Application Help from the context-sensitive menu.

    The application help appears in a pane within your program. You can reposition the pane using the docking stickers or pin it to the program window.

Removing the Application Help pane

If you no longer want to display application help in a pane for your current program, you can simply remove it.

  1. Select the Close icon in the right-hand corner of the application help pane.

  2. Confirm that you want to delete the pane.